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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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 Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2006 11:56 am Post subject: Poor Get Richer |
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I have long contended that what many referred to as the economic halcyon days of the Clinton Administration were actually not so good for the poor (or the middle class). While they may cite decreasing poverty rates, at the same time there was rampant inflation in critical areas like housing. And the Clinton support for a runaway stock market definitely made some get inordinately rich without adding corresponding value, but left others stuggling to catch up.
I think the Bush policies in the past 6 years have done what it takes to let the bottom 1/3 finally get real money and for the middle 1/3 to catch up with the top third...and in all fairness, it's that middle third, the professionals and technologists who are providing real value to our society.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/08/business/08wage.html?ex=1323234000&en=fa278bf6ba900eac&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss
| Quote: | Long a Laggard, Wages Start to Outpace Prices
The average hourly wage for workers below management level — everyone from school bus drivers to stockbrokers — rose 2.8 percent from October 2005 to October of this year, after being adjusted for inflation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Only a year ago, it was falling by 1.5 percent. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 9:19 am Post subject: Rich getting Poorer (anecdotal) |
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It’s Not So Easy Being Less Rich
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/01/fashion/01rich.html?_r=1&ref=fashion&oref=slogin
| Quote: |
But Ms. Chemtob’s clients are concerned all the same, she said, because their incomes have shrunk, say, to $2 million a year from $8 million, and they know that their 2008 bonus checks are likely to be much less impressive.
One of her clients recently confessed that his net worth had decreased to $8 million from more than $20 million, and he thinks that his wife will leave him. He has hidden their fall in fortune by taking on debt to pay for her extravagant clothes and vacations.
“I literally had to sit there and tell him that he had to tell his wife that she had to stop spending,” she said. “He was actually scared she would leave him because their financial situation changed so drastically.” |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 6:20 pm Post subject: |
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Home-Price Erosion Hits the $5 Million-Plus Market
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/105161/Cheap-Chic:-Home-Price-Erosion-Hits-the-%245-Million-Plus-Market
| Quote: |
After seeming impervious to the main market's woes of the past two years, homes in the $5 million-plus market have come down an estimated 10% to 15% in the past two quarters, and they are likely to shed another 10% or more over the next 12 months, according to Housing Predictor, a Destin, Fla., company that crunches data on 250 U.S. regions. "The high-end market is the fortress of the real-estate asset class, and the inner sanctum has been breached," says David Darst, chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 7:09 pm Post subject: Welcome Back To Earth, Dimwits |
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Rich are not so different when economy is down
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008090024_wealthy04.html
| Quote: | DiRenzo says he's feeling the hit in many places, especially in the value of his house on Long Island's upscale Gold Coast in Muttontown, N.Y.
He owns the kind of place you'd expect a former hedge-fund manager would call home: six bedrooms, seven full baths, hand-crafted Italian doors throughout, high-tech security and sound systems, and 9,000 square feet of living space on 2.4 acres.
It can be had for $7 million — a good deal, he says, when you consider his next-door neighbor's comparable home sold for $9 million last fall. He has cut the price twice in the 12 months it's been on the market.
DiRenzo wants a smaller, cheaper home. He also may buy a hybrid to supplement the two Mercedes in his heated four-car garage. And, he's driving less.
The DiRenzos aren't unlike many American families cutting back to weather a downturn. They're just richer. |
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brian-hansen
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Joined: 18 Mar 2006
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Location: Oregon
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 1:16 pm Post subject: |
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I find myself intrigued by your view on housing prices. In particular,
the likelihood, the depth, and the positive value of a continued housing
price drop.
I don't have a clear idea in my mind about the first two notions.
Prediction is notoriously difficult, and reasonable people can
arrive at different conclusions, none of which may subsequently be
borne out. My own intuition is that your predictions *are* fairly
plausible: it's pretty likely that housing prices will continue to decline
or remain flat for several more years.
The third notion is not so much a prediction than a point of
philosophy.
We seem to share some core ideas about the ill-effects of
rising economic inequality. I view the rapid rise in the inequality
of wealth to be a positive danger to democracy.
The popping of the real estate bubble has caused and is causing
a "shakeout" of questionable deals and speculation. Of course,
innocent bystanders got hurt, too.
So, this is all prelude to the thing which motivated me to post a
reply. Your description of the housing inflation during the Clinton
presidency. Briefly, that isn't the way I remember it.
My recollection is that house price inflation didn't really start
taking off until around 1999-2001, and it really took hold from
2001-2006. Of course, regions vary. I looked around to find
some data on housing price inflation. I found:
http://www.socalbubble.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=510
and
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/06/24/sp-ranks-this-housing-slump-deeper-than-1990s/
For an analysis *and* prediction, I found:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct07/housing-inflation.html
Just to add a wrinkle or two, it matters how you measure, and this
article touches on some of those wrinkles:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/26/business/yourmoney/26view.html
It seems to me that these descriptions and graphs of housing prices
in the 90's corroborate my recollections, and directly contradict your
claim about housing inflation during the Clinton administration.
Of course, there may be better graphs, and so on, so I'd be happy
to see them if you come across any. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 6:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | We seem to share some core ideas about the ill-effects of
rising economic inequality. I view the rapid rise in the inequality
of wealth to be a positive danger to democracy. |
I am not sure if that is the case. In fact, my "status quo-ish" reason for posting this thread was merely to counterveil the Liberal salve about "poor getting poorer; rich getting richer". My argument has always been that the marketplace will let people "take turns" at the top and that the notion of a static upper class is just not true.
As far as good or bad, I am saying just "is". |
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brian-hansen
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 11:21 pm Post subject: |
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| jabailo wrote: | | Quote: | We seem to share some core ideas about the ill-effects of
rising economic inequality. I view the rapid rise in the inequality
of wealth to be a positive danger to democracy. |
I am not sure if that is the case. In fact, my "status quo-ish" reason for posting this thread was merely to counterveil the Liberal salve about "poor getting poorer; rich getting richer". My argument has always been that the marketplace will let people "take turns" at the top and that the notion of a static upper class is just not true.
As far as good or bad, I am saying just "is". |
So, when you said:
| jabailo wrote: | I think the Bush policies in the past 6 years have done what it takes to let the bottom 1/3 finally get real money and for the middle 1/3 to catch up with the top third...and in all fairness, it's that middle third, the professionals and technologists who are providing real value to our society.
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You don't think you express that you think the Bush administration
should be praised for doing "what it takes"? to reduce income
inequality? You aren't saying that it is good, merely that it is? Curious. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:53 am Post subject: |
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Well, simplicity doesn't really apply here (or to me in particular as you can see by my bi-polar opinions).
I think I would fall back on my argument of I don't mind if the top guy makes 1 Billion and the rest of people make $100,000 so long as the top guy doesn't buy up all the land, houses and cars and make it impossible for the average guy to live without paying fealty.
Unfortunately, that has characterized a lot of life post 1970 in America which was on a path to near feudalism prior to the "Recession" and "Tech Bust" of 2000/1.
I just don't know if saying "I think it should be this way" is at all possible as in, we tried to make this society where everyone was middle class and people rebelled against it. Some wanted more. Some felt constrained. I don't think it worked well to shoehorn people into the same Leavittown lifestyle.
On the other hand (he says, in his best John Kerry flip-flop voice), having a few "warlords" who can make everyone dance on puppet strings because they own the necessary dollars doesn't seem very pleasant either.
It also makes us promote this lie of the "marketplace". Clearly we live in a constructed economy. The Gov-Erh-Ment is the largest purchaser of anything, anywhere. To say that "private enterprise" rules the roost and it's the "brilliance of entrepreneurs" who drive the economy should only invite eye rolling by anyone of intelligence. Basically the powers that be set the dinner at the table and the cleverness is in us mice climbing the table to get the cheese. But we shouldn't ever think that we could put the food there in the first place. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 12:21 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | My recollection is that house price inflation didn't really start
taking off until around 1999-2001, and it really took hold from
2001-2006. |
I guess I am basing this on my own experiences post-Princeton. I remember that by the time we left college (1982) New York area apartments were beginning to sky rocket from the lows of the 1970s. In fact, feeling that I would never "break even" in NYC, I ended up trying Pittsburgh, which was a great bargain, but had no job growth, and then Pennsylvania...where housing had just started to outstrip income (1985). Of course then I moved to Seattle and it's been a car chase of income to rents and housing ever since -- up until the last 2 years when everything came to a screeching halt.
So in my mind, it's been almost 3 and 1/2 decades (including the rapid rises during Clinton-Gore). |
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brian-hansen
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Joined: 18 Mar 2006
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Location: Oregon
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| Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 1:40 am Post subject: |
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| jabailo wrote: | | Quote: | My recollection is that house price inflation didn't really start
taking off until around 1999-2001, and it really took hold from
2001-2006. |
I guess I am basing this on my own experiences post-Princeton. I remember that by the time we left college (1982) New York area apartments were beginning to sky rocket from the lows of the 1970s....
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Of course, there have been many periods of housing inflation and
inflation in general over those decades. I remember S&Ls offering
14+% interest for savings, for instance. Also, there were flat and
down periods. I didn't mean to give the impression that I was
making any claims about the 70s or 80s. My experience, and the
data I found pretty much contradicted your claim about the Clinton
years.
| Quote: |
So in my mind, it's been almost 3 and 1/2 decades (including the rapid rises during Clinton-Gore). |
You just don't want to let this one go! It looks to me that housing
prices were flat or down, depending on a lot of factors like how
you measure it, from 1992-1999. Compare that to a 250-300%
increase 2000-2006 [I'm looking at the SOCAL data I posted earlier]. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | flat or down, depending on a lot of factors like how you measure it, from 1992-1999. |
Not according to your own sources. For example, click on the chart accompanying the NYT article you posted. What is measures is year over end increases. So, it appears as if sometimes it's flat, but anything over 0% represents an increase in the absolute value or price of the home. And it's compounded, as in year after year of 3% percent increases can really add up. Also, that's across the board -- I'd imagine that trendy areas really shot up. Again, the 90s were the decade when the Puget Sound increased in population by something like one million people, so these people were selling their high valued homes and moving up and inflating the value of homes here and around the country. At the same time California homes were still increasing -- as your own data show. |
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brian-hansen
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Joined: 18 Mar 2006
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Location: Oregon
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| Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:04 am Post subject: |
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I'm not sure I'm ready to become an expert on housing prices and
statistics. We both live in areas that have had a pretty hot real estate
markets. I can easily imagine that you saw rapid increases in housing
prices in Seattle during the Clinton administration. I saw them in
Portland, too, but most of it appeared after 2000.
As far as the statistics, there must be better ones than the ones
I uncovered in a brief google search. I'd be interested to see more,
but as far as doing more searching goes, I think I've done my bit.
I wonder about the chart you mention. I have to admit, I didn't
notice it when I read the article. I was more concerned with the
ideas the article raised on the measuring of prices. Looking at
the text and the chart, I can't tell if it is adjusted for inflation.
I suspect that it is not. If that is correct, then it would seem to
generally corroborate my original point. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:41 am Post subject: |
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Of course Greenspan's policies were "tight money" and he was in power during Clinton (I am not a fan of Mr. Greenspan). Interest rates were abnormally high until near the end of the decade, and even then, they should have been lower than what Mr. Greenspan pegged them at (this, again, my opinion, is a contributor to the "tech bust" -- companies were capital starved, limiting growth and causing a cascading collapse in business).
So the actual house "payment" in totality -- rising prices, plus interest rates -- kept climbing during Clinton-Gore. |
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brian-hansen
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| Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 2:46 am Post subject: |
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| That Clinton. He was so bad! |
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brian-hansen
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Joined: 18 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 9:58 am Post subject: |
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I don't know why I bother correcting your errors.
If you had originally posted that Clinton (that bad man) had kept
the chairman of the Fed that Reagan appointed (and who also
served under Bush I and II). And that Greenspan didn't lower
interest rates to keep housing prices low during the final years
of the Clinton administration, thus those folks who have some
notion that their lives were a little easier then than they are now
are just plain deluded. If you'd posted that, I don't think I
would've bothered staying up late researching comparative
housing price trends over the last 20 years.
What appears to be your strategy of never admitting a mistake
might work well on the other forums you post to, but I can tell
you it wouldn't be a good poker strategy, for instance: "Well, my
hand would've beat yours if I'd have made my inside straight
on the river."
The funny thing is, I don't think presidents have all that much
control over things like housing prices anyway. Sure, they appoint
the chairman of the Fed, but the Fed represents big money.
They raise interest rates because they can, and lower them
when they have to. If a president appoints someone big money
doesn't like, then watch out. Big money will punish us all.
The Fed is not really an arm of government.
Next time, I think I might be better off leaving you in your
ignorance. |
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brian-hansen
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| Posted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:10 am Post subject: |
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Looking back at my post, I think I may have been a bit harsh.
Never admitting a mistake, *might* be an okay poker strategy. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
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jabailo
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Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 10:07 am Post subject: Diddy: Less Money, More Problems |
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http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/Music/09/01/people.sean.combs.ap/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
| Quote: | Fuel prices have grounded an unexpected frequent-flyer: Diddy.
Sean "Diddy" Combs complained about the "... too high" price of gas and pleaded for free oil from his "Saudi Arabia brothers and sisters" in a YouTube video posted Wednesday.
The hip-hop mogul said he is now flying on commercial airlines instead of in private jets, which Combs said had previously cost him $200,000 and up for a roundtrip between New York and Los Angeles. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTxtStJrKGr0&refer=home
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Prices May Have Tumbled as Economy Sank: U.S. Economy Preview
By Bob Willis
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of living in the U.S. probably fell in October by the most in almost sixty years, while manufacturing and homebuilding sank deeper into a recession, economists said before reports this week. |
Life gets even more affordable for the poor!
Meanwhile Energy, Real Estate and DOW stocks -- the drivers of entrenched wealth, are still crashing down.
George Bush -- The Great Equalizer. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
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Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Thu Dec 18, 2008 4:24 pm Post subject: Free Market Comes to Boardrooms |
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aodKWFxp0SHs
| Quote: | | Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- FedEx Corp. cut Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith’s pay by 20 percent and will trim smaller amounts from U.S. salaried employees as the package shipper struggles with the longest recession in a quarter century. |
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alCvE.4reMiI
| Quote: |
Amkor, the provider of packaging and tests for semiconductors, said yesterday that CEO James J. Kim will have his salary sliced in half, while senior executives take a 20 percent reduction.
Western Digital, the world’s second-largest maker of hard- disk drives, cut CEO John Coyne’s pay a third to $600,000 and Chief Financial Officer Timothy Leyden’s salary a quarter to $412,500. |
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jabailo
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| Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2009 11:36 pm Post subject: |
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http://dequalss.com/2009/03/12/forbes-rich-sumbich-list/#more-5806
| Quote: | | The richest people in the world have gotten poorer, just like the rest of us. This year the world’s billionaires have an average net worth of $3 billion, down 23% in 12 months. The world now has 793 billionaires, down from 1,125 a year ago. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2009 10:09 am Post subject: |
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Millions are no longer millionaires
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/11/news/economy/millionaires_2008/index.htm?ref=patrick.net
| Quote: | | The number of American households with a net worth of $1 million or more, excluding the value of their primary residence, fell 27% to 6.7 million in 2008 from an all-time high of 9.2 million the year before, according to a report from market research firm Spectrem Group. |
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jabailo
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| Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 1:13 am Post subject: |
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Reversal of fortunes as rich become poorer
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2009702927_rich21.html
| Quote: | | But economists say — and data are beginning to show — that a significant change may be under way. The rich, as a group, are no longer getting richer. During the past two years, they have become poorer. And many may not return to their old levels of wealth anytime soon. |
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jabailo
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Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 8:21 am Post subject: |
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Giving Investors a Say on CEO Pay
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1729480,00.html?iid=sphere-inline-sidebar
| Quote: |
Investors this year have asked for so-called "say on pay" at some 100 companies, including Coca-Cola, IBM, General Motors, Exxon Mobil, Citigroup, Anheuser-Busch, General Electric and Wal-Mart. As companies hold their annual meetings throughout April and May, some 70 different institutional investors will be pushing to add an annual provision to let shareholders vote up or down on how companies pay their top five executives. |
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jabailo
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jabailo
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jabailo
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| Posted: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_020310/content/01125107.guest.html
Couric Faces CBS Populist Revolt
| Quote: | | ...Katie Couric faces a 50% pay cut. [...] Right now she gets $14 million a year, plus a couple bumps for non-evening news appearances. But her salary is now in the direct line of fire, according to network insiders who explained this to the Drudge Report," and get this: "A populist backlash against Couric's cash is said to be forming inside the newsroom. 'She makes enough to pay 200 news reporters $75,000 a year,' says a veteran producer. 'This is complete insanity,' the angry source continues. |
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jabailo
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| Posted: Sat Mar 27, 2010 11:55 am Post subject: |
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In Health Bill, Obama Attacks Wealth Inequality
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/24/business/24leonhardt.html
| Quote: | A big chunk of the money to pay for the bill comes from lifting payroll taxes on households making more than $250,000. On average, the annual tax bill for households making more than $1 million a year will rise by $46,000 in 2013, according to the Tax Policy Center, a Washington research group. Another major piece of financing would cut Medicare subsidies for private insurers, ultimately affecting their executives and shareholders.
The benefits, meanwhile, flow mostly to households making less than four times the poverty level — $88,200 for a family of four people. Those without insurance in this group will become eligible to receive subsidies or to join Medicaid. (Many of the poor are already covered by Medicaid.) Insurance costs are also likely to drop for higher-income workers at small companies. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2010 11:12 am Post subject: |
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Rich Stunned by Recession Sell Munis for First Time: Joe Mysak
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aXHsUQsPsW0I
| Quote: | | The rich did the unthinkable. They sold municipal bonds. Fear of a second Great Depression and the crackup of capitalism trumped the allure of tax-exempt income and a historical default rate of less than 1 percent. U.S. Treasury notes and insured certificates of deposit became the new investments of choice for those with the most to lose. |
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jabailo
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 860
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA
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| Posted: Sat Apr 03, 2010 10:28 pm Post subject: |
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Bargain Rates for a C.E.O.?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/04/business/04comp.html?ref=politics
| Quote: | | Equilar says the median pay package — the midpoint where half of the compensation packages on that list are lower and half are higher — declined by 13 percent last year, to $7.7 million. The average total pay tumbled by 15 percent, to $9.5 million. |
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